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Trade Schools vs. College: The ROI Data That Challenges the 4-Year Default
Is a four-year degree always the best path? The ROI data on trade schools vs. college may surprise parents who've assumed college is the only route to success.
For most parents reading this, the unexamined assumption is that their child will go to a four-year college. It’s the default — the path that doesn’t require justification. A child who says “I want to be an electrician” is expected to explain themselves; a child who says “I want to go to college” is not. But the financial data on four-year degree returns — especially for the bottom half of the graduate distribution, and especially given rising tuition and declining purchasing power of some degrees — increasingly challenges whether this default is warranted. This is not an anti-college argument. It is an evidence-based look at what the numbers actually say.
Key Takeaways
- The average four-year college graduate carries approximately $37,338 in student loan debt (Federal Reserve 2022), with many carrying significantly more.
- Skilled trades — electricians, plumbers, HVAC technicians, welders — have median annual wages ranging from $48,000 to $98,000, with no degree debt in most cases.
- According to the Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, approximately 30% of associate’s degree holders out-earn bachelor’s degree holders in the same field.
- The “college premium” — the earnings advantage of college graduates over non-graduates — is real but has narrowed, and varies enormously by field of study and institution.
- Workforce demand for skilled trades exceeds supply in most U.S. regions, creating upward wage pressure that is likely to continue.
The Four-Year Degree Assumption: Where It Came From
The expectation that every child should attend a four-year university is historically recent and culturally specific. In 1940, just 4.6% of Americans had a bachelor’s degree. By 2023, it was approximately 37%. The expansion was partly driven by genuine economic value (the college wage premium grew significantly from the 1970s through the 1990s), partly by institutional momentum (more jobs began requiring degrees as a signal, even when degree content wasn’t relevant), and partly by cultural status signaling.
The critical change in the past two decades is that college costs have risen dramatically faster than wages. The College Board reports that average published tuition and fees at four-year public institutions grew from approximately $4,000 in 2002 to approximately $11,000 in 2022, not accounting for room, board, or private institution costs. Total cost of attendance at many flagship state universities now exceeds $30,000 per year; private universities routinely exceed $70,000.
The question this raises is not whether college has value — it frequently does. The question is whether the cost-to-benefit calculation favors college for every student, in every program, at every price point. The data says no.
What Skilled Trades Actually Pay
The trade vs. college conversation is often poisoned by outdated assumptions about trade wages. The reality in 2024:
| Trade | Median Annual Wage (BLS 2023) | Typical Training Path | Typical Debt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electrician | $61,590 | 4–5 year apprenticeship | $0–$5,000 |
| Plumber | $61,550 | 4–5 year apprenticeship | $0–$5,000 |
| HVAC Technician | $57,300 | 6 months–2 years | $0–$20,000 |
| Elevator Installer/Repairer | $97,860 | 4–5 year apprenticeship | $0–$5,000 |
| Boilermaker | $66,920 | 4–5 year apprenticeship | $0–$5,000 |
| Industrial Electrician | $71,000+ | 4–5 years + licensing | $0–$10,000 |
| Construction Manager | $98,890 | Trade exp. + certificate | Variable |
| Welder | $47,800 | 6 months–2 years | $0–$15,000 |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment Statistics, May 2023
Compare these to the median wages for common bachelor’s degree paths:
- Bachelor’s degree, all workers: $69,000 median (BLS 2022) — but this includes 4 years of foregone income plus loan debt
- History bachelor’s degree: ~$45,000–$55,000 median starting salary
- Psychology bachelor’s degree: ~$38,000–$48,000 median starting salary
- Art/Design bachelor’s degree: ~$42,000–$55,000 median
The comparison is complicated by the fact that many bachelor’s degree holders go on to higher-earning careers over time — but the immediate earnings and debt picture looks very different than the cultural narrative suggests.
The ROI Calculation: What Georgetown’s Research Found
The Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce has produced the most comprehensive research on education return on investment available. Key findings from their analysis:
“Not all bachelor’s degrees are created equal”: They found that median earnings of workers with bachelor’s degrees in education, liberal arts, and arts were below the median earnings of workers with associate’s degrees in healthcare and technical fields.
Short-term ROI of trades: Considering that a trade apprentice begins earning wages (typically $18–$25/hour starting) while a college student is paying tuition, the 10-year earnings advantage of college can take significantly longer to materialize than commonly assumed — sometimes 10 years or more.
The credential mismatch: Georgetown’s research found substantial “credential inflation” — jobs that once required high school diplomas now list bachelor’s degrees as requirements, without the job content having changed. This creates artificial demand for degrees that doesn’t reflect actual skill requirements.
The Specific Fields Where Trades Win the ROI Comparison
The comparison is not uniform. In some fields, four-year degrees clearly provide better long-term ROI. In others, trades win by a significant margin.
Fields where trades frequently win:
- Electrical work: Electrician apprentices complete free training while earning wages. Master electricians — who can start their own businesses — can earn $100,000–$200,000+. No bachelor’s degree required.
- Plumbing: Same apprenticeship model; master plumbers with their own businesses often earn more than most bachelor’s degree holders.
- HVAC: Growing field (heat pump installation is climate-tech adjacent) with solid wages and lower training time than apprenticeship trades.
- Elevator construction: The highest-paid trade on BLS records, with apprenticeship programs that pay well even during training.
Fields where bachelor’s degrees frequently win:
- Engineering: Required for most engineering professional roles.
- Healthcare (RN and above): Nursing requires at minimum an associate’s or bachelor’s degree.
- Computer science: Strong ROI for most graduates, though coding bootcamp alternatives exist.
- Business/accounting: Mid-to-strong ROI with CPA or MBA pathways.
What About Community College?
Community college is an undervalued middle path. Associate’s degrees and technical certificates in skilled trades, healthcare, and information technology often provide:
- Lower cost than four-year institutions (average ~$3,860/year for tuition and fees, College Board 2022)
- Job-specific training aligned with local labor market needs
- Transfer pathways to four-year programs for students who want to continue
- Faster time to employment (typically 2 years vs. 4)
Programs in nursing, dental hygiene, computer networking, HVAC, automotive technology, and cybersecurity at community colleges frequently produce graduates who out-earn four-year humanities graduates immediately upon employment.
The “Some College, No Degree” Problem
One critical data point that rarely makes the conversation: approximately 36 million Americans have attended college but not completed a degree. These individuals carry the costs and time investment of college attendance without the credential benefits. “Some college” generally produces worse earnings outcomes than either a completed degree or a completed trade credential.
This matters for the college vs. trades conversation because the completion rates differ significantly:
| Credential | Completion Rate |
|---|---|
| 4-year bachelor’s degree, public | ~63% within 6 years (NCES 2023) |
| 2-year associate’s degree, community college | ~39% within 3 years (NCES 2023) |
| Apprenticeship program | ~50% completion (DOL 2022) |
| Industry certification program | Highly variable; generally ~70–80% |
A student who is not a strong fit for four-year academic work faces significant risk of becoming a “some college, no degree” statistic — with debt and without credential.
The Labor Market Reality: Trades Are Undersupplied
Beyond the individual ROI calculation, there is a structural labor market fact that is likely to affect trade wages for the foreseeable future: there are not enough people entering the trades.
The average age of skilled trade workers in the U.S. is approximately 43 years old, with a large wave of retirements expected through the 2020s and 2030s. Meanwhile, enrollment in vocational programs declined for decades as the cultural emphasis shifted entirely to four-year college.
The result: electrician, plumber, HVAC technician, and welder shortages in most U.S. markets, with wages rising in response. The National Electrical Contractors Association estimates a shortfall of 80,000 electricians by 2030. The Plumbing-Heating-Cooling Contractors Association projects similar gaps.
This supply constraint is upward pressure on trade wages that is likely to persist for a decade or more.
How to Have This Conversation With Your Child
The conversation should be framed around fit and evidence, not status or default:
- Don’t start with college as the assumption. Ask what kind of work your child imagines doing, and work backward from there.
- Introduce the wage data neutrally. Many children don’t know that electricians earn $60,000+ or that college graduates in some fields earn less.
- Discuss debt as a real variable. A 22-year-old who has completed an electrician apprenticeship with $0 debt is in a fundamentally different financial position than a 22-year-old with $37,000 in student loans and a psychology degree.
- Make interest and aptitude central. A child who hates sitting in classrooms and loves working with their hands may be a genuinely better fit for an apprenticeship than for four years of college — and understanding this is a kindness, not a limitation.
- Consider hybrid paths. An associate’s degree at community college before transfer; a trade credential followed by engineering school later; a bachelor’s degree in business while working as an apprentice — linear paths are not the only paths.
What to Watch For Over 3 Months
- Hands-on versus academic preference: Children who consistently gravitate toward building, fixing, making, and physical problem-solving may be expressing a genuine aptitude orientation worth taking seriously.
- Academic performance patterns: A child who is a poor academic fit for the four-year college experience (not because of intelligence, but because of learning style and interest) is more likely to complete a trade credential than a degree.
- Interest in how systems work: Mechanical curiosity — wanting to understand how engines, electrical systems, or plumbing works — is both intrinsically interesting and professionally relevant to trades.
- Community expectations pressure: Sometimes the pressure toward college is more about community status expectations than the child’s actual interests or aptitude. Being honest about this is a form of genuine parental support.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does going into a trade limit future options?
Not necessarily. Many electricians and plumbers start their own businesses, becoming employers rather than employees. Some trade workers go on to engineering degrees later. Community college credits can transfer to four-year programs. The path is not irreversible — and the financial position of someone with trade credentials and no debt often gives them more flexibility to consider additional education than someone with significant student loan obligations.
What trades are most in demand right now?
Electricians, HVAC technicians, plumbers, and pipefitters consistently appear at the top of workforce shortage reports. Solar panel installers and wind turbine technicians are among the fastest-growing occupations in the BLS projections. Elevator installers are the highest-paid tradesperson category in BLS data. Healthcare support roles (medical sonographers, dental hygienists, radiologic technologists) require associate’s or technical degrees rather than full apprenticeships but follow a similar short-training, high-demand model.
What if my child wants to go to college but I’m concerned about the cost?
Compare the net price (after financial aid) at specific institutions, not the sticker price. Many private universities have high sticker prices but generous aid that brings net cost to comparable or lower levels than flagship public institutions for lower-income families. The College Scorecard (collegescorecard.ed.gov) provides median earnings data for graduates of specific programs at specific institutions — use this before committing to any program.
Can girls or young women pursue trades?
Yes. The trades have historically been male-dominated but are actively recruiting women. Many apprenticeship programs and trade schools have active diversity initiatives. Women are underrepresented, which means that female applicants often receive priority consideration in some programs.
About the author
Ricky Flores is the founder of HiWave Makers and an electrical engineer with 15+ years of experience building consumer technology at Apple, Samsung, and Texas Instruments. He writes about how kids learn to build, think, and create in a tech-saturated world. Read more at hiwavemakers.com.
Sources
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. (2024). Occupational employment and wage statistics. https://www.bls.gov/oes/
- Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. (2021). The college payoff: More education doesn’t always mean more earnings. https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/collegepayoff2021/
- College Board. (2023). Trends in college pricing 2023. https://research.collegeboard.org/trends/college-pricing
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York. (2024). The labor market for recent college graduates. https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market
- National Center for Education Statistics. (2023). Digest of education statistics. https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/
- U.S. Department of Labor. (2023). Registered apprenticeship national results fiscal year 2023. https://www.dol.gov/agencies/eta/apprenticeship/about/statistics
- National Electrical Contractors Association. (2023). Workforce report. https://www.necanet.org
