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How COVID Permanently Changed School Priorities: A 2026 Research Update
Chronic absenteeism is up 70% since 2019 and hasn't recovered. Here's what schools are spending COVID recovery money on and what the research says about what works.
The headline about pandemic learning loss usually features test scores: reading scores down X points, math scores down Y points. Those numbers are real. But they obscure what might be the more durable problem: roughly 26% of US students — about 13 million children — were chronically absent (missing 10% or more of school days) in the 2022–23 school year. That’s more than double the pre-pandemic rate. Students missing that many days don’t fall slightly behind. They fall out of school’s rhythm entirely.
By 2026, districts have been working with federal COVID recovery funds for several years. Some of what they’ve tried is working. Much of what they’ve tried isn’t. And the ESSER (Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief) funds are now spent, leaving districts to sustain interventions on regular budgets they can’t necessarily afford.
Key Takeaways
- Chronic absenteeism more than doubled during COVID and remained at roughly twice pre-pandemic rates through 2023–24 in most states.
- Mental health staffing (school counselors, social workers, psychologists) saw the largest COVID-era investment, driven by clear demand and strong research support.
- High-dosage tutoring — 3+ sessions per week in small groups — showed the strongest evidence for learning recovery, but cost and logistics limited scale.
- Building ventilation and HVAC upgrades represent a largely permanent infrastructure change in many districts.
- ESSER funds expire; the sustainability of COVID-era investments is a major policy question for 2026–2030.
What Schools Invested In — And What Recovered
The ESSER funding totaled approximately $190 billion across three packages (CARES Act 2020, CRRSA 2020, ARP 2021). By law, schools had to spend it by January 2025. What did they buy?
An analysis by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities documented the categories:
- Personnel: Additional teachers, counselors, tutors, and support staff — often funded through ESSER for 3–4 years
- Learning recovery programs: Extended school days, summer programs, tutoring
- Mental health services: Social workers, psychologists, licensed counselors
- Ventilation and HVAC: Building infrastructure upgrades
- Technology: Devices and connectivity (partly already addressed in ESSER I)
What has recovered from the COVID dip, and what hasn’t?
Test scores: Math scores showed the most severe COVID declines and have partially recovered in most states. NAEP 2024 data shows 4th grade math scores remain below 2019 levels nationally but have closed about 40% of the gap. Reading scores have recovered less.
Attendance: This is the alarming outlier. Chronic absenteeism doubled during COVID and has not normalized. The National Center for Education Statistics found that chronic absenteeism rates remained at roughly 26% nationally in 2022–23, compared to 13–14% pre-pandemic. Some states improved in 2023–24; most did not return to pre-pandemic levels.
Enrollment: K-12 enrollment declined by roughly 1.3 million students during COVID and has recovered partially but not fully. Early grades particularly show persistent enrollment gaps.
Mental Health: The Investment That Stuck
Before COVID, school mental health services were chronically underfunded. The American School Counselor Association’s recommended ratio of 1 counselor per 250 students was rarely met — national averages were closer to 1:400. Social workers and psychologists were rarer still.
COVID changed this. The combination of visible student mental health crises, parent demand, and ESSER funding drove a substantial increase in mental health staffing. Between 2020 and 2024, the number of school-based mental health providers increased by approximately 31%, according to analysis by the Education Commission of the States.
The research on school mental health support is unambiguous: access to counselors is associated with better outcomes across academic, attendance, and behavioral metrics. A 2020 meta-analysis in Journal of School Psychology by Carey et al. found that comprehensive school counseling programs (those meeting ASCA model standards) were associated with improved academic achievement, better school climate, and reduced discipline referrals.
The sustainability question is critical: when ESSER funds run out, districts that hired mental health staff on temporary funding must either find local budget to retain them or reduce staffing. Early data from 2024–25 shows significant variation — some districts have absorbed the positions; others have laid off COVID-era mental health hires.
The Chronic Absenteeism Crisis: What’s Driving It and What Works
Understanding why chronic absenteeism doubled requires understanding that the causes are not uniform.
Research by Attendance Works, the leading organization tracking school attendance data, identifies three categories of absent students:
Chronic: Illness-related. Some students are absent due to chronic health conditions that were exacerbated by COVID (respiratory issues, anxiety, weakened immune response). These students need health intervention, not attendance intervention.
Chronic: Disengagement. Some students, particularly in middle and high school, disconnected from school during remote learning and never reconnected. They don’t see the point. This group is largest and hardest to reach.
Chronic: Life circumstances. Housing instability, family illness, work obligations, and transportation barriers keep students from school. These students and families need material support, not attendance nudges.
| Absenteeism Cause | Estimated % of Chronic Absentees | Effective Intervention |
|---|---|---|
| Health (acute/chronic illness) | ~20% | School health services, telehealth |
| Disengagement (school belonging) | ~40% | Mentoring, relationship-building, relevance |
| Life circumstances (economic) | ~25% | Social work, family support, transportation |
| Anxiety/school refusal | ~15% | Mental health intervention, graduated return |
Research on what actually reduces chronic absenteeism shows consistent findings: individualized outreach (not automated emails, but personal contact from a known adult) is the most effective intervention. A 2018 randomized trial by Rogers and Feller found that attendance nudge letters sent to parents reduced chronic absenteeism by 10–15% relative to controls. But the effects were stronger when the nudge came from a person the student knew.
Learning Recovery: What Research Showed About What Works
With $190 billion spent, what moved the needle on learning recovery?
High-dosage tutoring: The clearest evidence favored intensive, small-group tutoring (3+ sessions per week, 45+ minutes each, during the school day). Research from Chicago schools documented one of the cleanest findings: students receiving high-dosage tutoring in math showed 10 months of additional math learning in a single school year. The challenge: it costs roughly $3,000–$5,000 per student per year at quality implementation — sustainable only with federal funding.
Extended learning time: Studies on extended-day and extended-year programs show modest positive effects (effect sizes around 0.10–0.20), but the effect is primarily concentrated in schools serving high-poverty populations where the additional time provides a meaningful supplement to limited home learning environments.
Summer learning programs: Research shows that well-designed summer programs can produce 0.10–0.30 SD learning gains. However, participation rates in voluntary summer programs are consistently lower than projected, and lower for the highest-need students. Mandatory summer programs show better participation but face political resistance.
For parents thinking about the relationship between learning loss and at-home study habits, the research on retrieval practice and the testing effect is directly applicable — the same evidence-based study strategies that work in normal times are especially important during recovery periods when in-school instruction time is being used for remediation.
The ESSER Cliff: What Happens When the Money Runs Out
The most significant school finance question of 2026 is what happens to the programs, staff, and services funded through ESSER as districts absorb those costs — or don’t — into regular budgets.
Analysis by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities projected that districts collectively funded approximately 100,000 staff positions through ESSER that would need to be either absorbed into local budgets or eliminated. Given declining K-12 enrollment in many districts (which reduces per-pupil state funding) and inflationary cost pressures, many districts face genuine fiscal stress.
Parents should watch for:
- Announcements of staff reductions in spring 2025 and 2026 — often framed as budget cuts but reflecting ESSER fund expiration
- Program eliminations (tutoring programs, extended day, summer school) that were explicitly ESSER-funded
- Class size increases in districts managing cost pressures through position eliminations
What to Watch For Over the Next 3 Months
Month 1: Find out whether any specific programs your child participates in — tutoring, extended day, after-school supports, or specific interventions — were funded through ESSER and whether the district has secured alternative funding. District budget documents are public; ESSER expenditure reports are often available on district or state department of education websites.
Month 2: Ask your child’s school or district what their chronic absenteeism data shows. Most states now publish chronic absenteeism rates by school. If your child’s school is above 20%, that signals a school-wide climate or support issue worth understanding.
Month 3: If absenteeism is a concern for your child, have a direct conversation with the school about the specific barriers — social, health, or motivational. Research shows that the most effective intervention is personalized adult relationship, not automated communications. Make sure your child has an adult at school they connect with.
Frequently Asked Questions
My child’s test scores recovered. Does that mean they’re fine?
Test score recovery is a positive signal but doesn’t capture everything. Many students show surface-level recovery in math facts or reading decoding but have gaps in conceptual understanding or academic stamina. Check whether your child can apply knowledge in unfamiliar contexts — not just recall facts. If you notice inconsistency between test performance and actual understanding, discuss it with the teacher.
How do I know if my child was affected by COVID learning loss?
Ask teachers for specific skill assessments relative to grade-level standards, not just grade comparisons (which are relative). A student who was below grade level before COVID and is still below grade level is not showing COVID learning loss — they have an earlier gap. A student who met standards in 2019 and doesn’t meet them now shows COVID impact. The distinction matters for the intervention.
Are schools still doing COVID precautions that might affect learning?
Most COVID-era protocols (distancing, masking mandates, frequent quarantines) were eliminated by 2022–23. What persists in most schools: improved ventilation systems (a real and durable health benefit), better sick-leave policies for students, and increased awareness of respiratory illness protocols. The learning environment disruptions from active COVID management are largely resolved.
Is homeschooling still more popular than before COVID?
Yes. National Center for Education Statistics data shows homeschooling enrollment roughly doubled during COVID and has remained elevated — approximately 5.4% of school-age children were homeschooled in 2023 vs. 3.3% in 2019. Most of the increase reflects families who chose homeschooling during COVID and found it preferable. It is a permanent shift in a meaningful minority of families.
About the author Ricky Flores is the founder of HiWave Makers and an electrical engineer with 15+ years of experience building consumer technology at Apple, Samsung, and Texas Instruments. He writes about how kids learn to build, think, and create in a tech-saturated world. Read more at hiwavemakers.com.
Sources
- National Center for Education Statistics. (2024). “The Nation’s Report Card: 2024 NAEP Results.” https://www.nationsreportcard.gov
- Attendance Works. (2023). “Chronic Absence in the COVID-19 Era.” https://www.attendanceworks.org
- Carey, J. C., et al. (2020). “A Meta-Analysis of School-Based Outcome Research for the School Counseling ASCA National Model.” Journal of School Psychology, 83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsp.2020.10.003
- Dorn, E., Hancock, B., Sarakatsannis, J., & Viruleg, E. (2021). “COVID-19 and Learning Loss — Disparities Grow and Students Need Help.” McKinsey & Company.
- Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. (2023). “States Should Use Remaining Federal Education Funds to Build Lasting Investments, Not Just Plugging Temporary Gaps.” https://www.cbpp.org
- Rogers, T., & Feller, A. (2018). “Reducing Student Absences at Scale by Targeting Parents’ Misbeliefs.” Nature Human Behaviour, 2, 335–342. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-018-0328-1
