What Colleges Look for Now vs. 10 Years Ago: Research Update

A parent of a high school junior recently asked whether her daughter needed an SAT score in the 1400s to have a realistic shot at a selective school. Her daughter had a 3.9 GPA, ran the school newspaper, and had done two summers of STEM research. Five years ago, the answer might have been yes. In 2026, with many selective schools permanently test-optional, the answer is more complicated — and more interesting.

College admissions have changed substantially since 2020. Some of the changes are likely permanent. Some are still resolving. And some of what parents believe about admissions doesn’t match how admissions offices actually work. Here’s what the research and data show.

Key Takeaways

• Test-optional policies are here to stay at roughly 80% of selective schools — but this doesn’t mean test scores don’t matter.
• GPA and course rigor (number and difficulty of AP/IB/college-level courses) remain the strongest predictors of college success and are still the top admission factor.
• Research shows SAT/ACT scores are reasonably good predictors of first-year college GPA — about as predictive as high school GPA, and better together than either alone.
• Extracurricular depth (one or two significant commitments) outperforms breadth in selective admissions research.
• The “holistic review” most schools claim to do is real — but it means different things at different tiers of selectivity.

What Test-Optional Actually Means Now

When the pandemic forced test cancellations in 2020, hundreds of colleges suspended their testing requirements. Many never reinstated them. By 2024, roughly 80% of four-year colleges in the United States were test-optional. A handful of elite schools — MIT and Yale being the highest-profile — reversed course and reinstated test requirements.

The reversal got significant attention, but it’s a minority position among selective schools. What it revealed was the data: MIT’s admissions office published analysis showing that test scores provided additional predictive power beyond high school GPA, particularly for students from underrepresented backgrounds where grade inflation varies significantly by school.

For families navigating this landscape, the nuance matters. “Test-optional” doesn’t mean “test-blind.” At selective schools, a strong test score still helps. The question is: does a missing test score hurt? Research on early test-optional cohorts shows it depends on the selectivity tier.

A 2023 study by Hyman and Mulhern analyzing admissions data across test-optional schools found that students who submitted scores were admitted at higher rates, even controlling for other application characteristics. But students who did not submit scores were not penalized relative to the pre-optional baseline — the “no score” pool expanded to include more competitive candidates, which changed the composition without dramatically changing outcomes for qualified applicants.

What Research Shows About Grades vs. Test Scores as Predictors

This is the question behind the test-optional debate, and it has a research answer.

A comprehensive 2019 study by Hiss and Franks, analyzing outcomes from 33 diverse institutions over five years, found that high school GPA was a slightly stronger predictor of college graduation than SAT/ACT scores. Students with strong GPAs but below-median test scores graduated at rates similar to their full test-submitting peers.

That said, the University of California’s own research — published by the UC Academic Council in 2020 and used to justify their test-blind policy — simultaneously showed that test scores added predictive value when combined with GPA. Grades plus scores predicted first-year college performance better than either alone. The UC system went test-blind anyway, for equity reasons, but their own data showed scores carried independent predictive information.

The practical takeaway: both matter. GPA is slightly more predictive for graduation. Test scores add precision for first-year performance. Students who have both strong GPAs and strong test scores are the strongest applicants. Students with strong GPAs and weak test scores may be better served by not submitting.

What “Holistic Review” Really Means

Every selective college claims to evaluate applicants “holistically.” This means different things at different places.

At highly selective schools (top 20 by typical rankings), holistic review genuinely does involve reading essays, evaluating extracurricular commitments, considering recommendation letter substance, and weighing institutional priorities (athlete, legacy, development case, first-generation). Grades and scores are table-stakes — most qualified applicants have them — and the rest determines the admit.

At moderately selective schools (admit rates 30–60%), holistic review is often more of a threshold model: meet the GPA/test threshold and the rest of your application determines the admit. Essays and activities matter more at the margins.

At less selective schools, admissions are substantially formula-driven. GPA and test scores determine most outcomes.

Understanding which tier you’re looking at is necessary to understanding what to optimize.

What Extracurricular Research Actually Shows

Selective college admissions offices consistently say they value “depth over breadth” in extracurricular activities. Research on what actually predicts selective admission confirms this.

A 2020 report by the National Association for College Admission Counseling (NACAC) found that admissions officers at selective schools rated “student leadership” and “sustained commitment” as more important than number of activities. Students who were presidents, captains, editors, or founders of something scored better in the admissions review than students with equally long lists of clubs where they were members.

This is a change from 15 years ago, when the college-going myth was that you needed to be president of five clubs. Admissions deans at Yale, Stanford, and similar schools have been explicit in recent years: three real activities pursued with genuine commitment beat ten that look padded.

The implication for parents: stop encouraging your kid to join more things. Encourage them to go deeper into the things they already care about.

Admissions Factor	Selectivity Tier	Weight Now vs. 10 Years Ago	Research Basis
GPA and course rigor	All tiers	Same or higher	NACAC, Hiss & Franks
Test scores (if submitted)	High selectivity	High but optional	MIT, UC data
Essay quality	High selectivity	Higher (more weight post-optional)	Anecdotal + officer surveys
Extracurricular depth	High selectivity	Same to higher	NACAC surveys
Demonstrated interest	Mid-tier	Higher	Enrollment management data
First-generation status	High selectivity	Modestly positive	Affirmative action research
Legacy preference	Varies	Declining publicly	Institutional pressure

The First-Generation Student Reality

After the Supreme Court’s 2023 SFFA ruling eliminated race-conscious admissions, many selective colleges explicitly increased their stated interest in socioeconomic diversity and first-generation college students.

Research on how first-generation status affects admissions outcomes at selective schools is mixed. A 2024 analysis by the College Transition Collaborative found that first-generation status, when disclosed and explained contextually, was viewed positively by most selective admissions officers. However, the same analysis noted that first-generation students are often disadvantaged by the process itself — less access to college counseling, weaker knowledge of demonstrated interest norms, and application essays that don’t deploy the language selective admissions expects.

What “Demonstrated Interest” Means in 2026

Demonstrated interest — showing a college you’re genuinely interested in attending, not just using it as a safety school — has become more significant at mid-tier and tuition-dependent institutions since the Common App made mass applications easy.

Tracking mechanisms include: campus visits (now tracked since the pandemic, many via virtual visit logs), email opens, engagement with admissions portals, and interviews. Schools where yield (the percentage of admitted students who enroll) is a financial survival question care about demonstrated interest most.

At highly selective schools, demonstrated interest carries minimal weight — Stanford and MIT admit on merit and know students will enroll regardless. At a school with a 60% admit rate, demonstrated interest might move a borderline application.

What Parents Can Productively Do

The most useful things parents can do for college-bound students:

Support transcript rigor, not resume padding. A student who takes four AP courses and earns Bs is doing something more academically impressive than a student who takes two and earns As, according to most selective admissions research. Course rigor is the first lens.

Understand financial aid before selectivity. Research by economists shows that the net cost of selective colleges with large endowments is often lower than less-selective schools with smaller financial aid budgets. A family that assumes Harvard is unaffordable may be wrong. Run the net price calculators at specific schools before assuming a school is financially out of reach.

Help your child find a real extracurricular interest. Not something that looks good on an application. Something they’d do if no one was watching. Admissions essays that emerge from genuine engagement read completely differently from essays about manufactured commitment.

For parents thinking about how academic skills developed now connect to college success, the research on metacognition and self-directed learning is directly relevant — college success requires exactly the self-regulatory skills that can be developed in middle and high school.

What to Watch For Over the Next 3 Months

Month 1: If your child is a junior, start mapping the realistic college list now — not by prestige, but by fit, affordability, and graduation rates. Use the College Scorecard (collegescorecard.ed.gov) to check actual earnings outcomes and graduation rates by school and major.

Month 2: Have an honest conversation about test scores. If your child’s PSAT scores suggest an SAT below 1100, investing in test prep may not change the application math at selective schools. Investing that time in a substantive project might.

Month 3: Help your child draft the first version of their personal statement now, before senior year. The best essays take months to develop. The worst ones are written the week before the deadline.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is test-optional permanent, or will schools go back to requiring scores?

Probably both. The majority of schools that went test-optional appear to be staying that way based on enrollment management data — optional policies attract a larger and more diverse applicant pool. MIT and a handful of elite schools have reversed course. Expect a permanent split: some selective schools requiring scores, most remaining optional.

Do legacy admissions still matter?

Yes, at many schools, though the practice is under increasing legal and political scrutiny. Harvard’s legacy preference was documented in court as a significant admissions advantage. Some schools (MIT, Carnegie Mellon) have eliminated legacy preference entirely. The safest assumption: legacy preference is real at schools that have not publicly eliminated it, but it’s a boost in competitive range, not a shortcut from uncompetitive to admitted.

What GPA do my kid need for selective college admission?

There’s no single answer. At highly selective schools (sub-15% admit rate), the admitted student median unweighted GPA is typically 3.8–3.9+. But these schools have admitted students across a much wider GPA range when other factors were exceptional. For moderately selective schools, a 3.5+ with strong course rigor is typically competitive.

How much does the college essay actually matter?

At highly selective schools, it matters significantly — it’s one of the few truly differentiating variables when grades and scores are table-stakes. A strong essay can tip a borderline candidate toward admission. A weak essay from a borderline candidate is often what tips them toward denial. Essays matter less at schools with more formula-driven admissions.

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About the author Ricky Flores is the founder of HiWave Makers and an electrical engineer with 15+ years of experience building consumer technology at Apple, Samsung, and Texas Instruments. He writes about how kids learn to build, think, and create in a tech-saturated world. Read more at hiwavemakers.com.

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Sources

1. Hiss, W. C., & Franks, V. W. (2014). “Defining Promise: Optional Standardized Testing Policies in American College and University Admissions.” NACAC. https://www.nacacnet.org/globalassets/documents/publications/research/defining-promise-optional-standardized-testing-policies.pdf
2. Hyman, J., & Mulhern, C. (2023). “The Effects of Test-Optional Admissions Policies at Selective Colleges.” Working Paper.
3. National Association for College Admission Counseling. (2020). “State of College Admission 2020.” https://www.nacacnet.org/research—policy—advocacy/research/soca/
4. University of California Academic Council. (2020). “Report of the UC Academic Council Standardized Testing Task Force (STTF).” https://senate.universityofcalifornia.edu/_files/reports/rm-dkk-sttf-report.pdf
5. Chetty, R., et al. (2023). “Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Causal Effects of Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges.” NBER Working Paper No. 31492. https://doi.org/10.3386/w31492
6. Belasco, A. S., Rosinger, K. O., & Hearn, J. C. (2015). “The Test-Optional Movement at America’s Selective Liberal Arts Colleges.” Research in Higher Education, 56. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-014-9356-x